Clash of Currencies
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The expectation that the Federal Reserve will expand the U. Treasury yields even further, has weighed on the U.
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Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said on Wednesday that officials would discuss currency intervention and inflexible exchange rates. The U. The strong yen forced Japan to sell it in currency markets last month, its first intervention since , and several emerging markets have followed suit. The IMF said Wednesday that emerging economies were set to grow nearly three times as fast than rich nations next year, with China the main engine of growth.
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Faster economic growth in developing countries than in developed countries accounts for the natural appreciation pressure on their currencies, particularly compared to the dollar, yen and euro, many economists argued. And when investors get worried, they look to the Federal Reserve. The question is: What will it do about interest rates, and about its balance sheet?
US Economist Will Denyer thinks the odds favor another rate cut. The tug-of-war between US-China trade tensions and Federal Reserve policy is causing a divergence between US industrial activity and consumer confidence.
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On one hand, industrial activity and investment, which are exposed to the trade war, are suffering from uncertainty. Hong Kong has faded somewhat from the headlines, and Gavekal's Simon Pritchard wonders if the worst has passed.
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Mexico's undervalued currency and a new trade deal with the US puts it in a prime spot to benefit from any "re-shoring" by multinationals moving production out of China for tariff or political reasons. There are no questions matching your query or you do not have permission to read them. Some charts from the book:. Order now. Currencies and Power in a Multipolar World Empires usually start off as road-building exercises.
So while they benefit from the free flow of capital, they are also increasingly exposed to volatility and other byproducts of those flows. The quantitative easing operations of the Fed and other advanced economy central banks pushed capital out to emerging markets, fueling rising inflation, asset price booms, and rapid currency appreciation in the developing world. The recently released transcripts of the Federal Reserve Open Markets Committee meetings in provide fascinating insights into the thinking of policy makers.
Moreover, Fed officials viewed their dollar reserves as a form of implicit collateral for the swap lines.source site
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In other words, higher levels of reserves increased the chances of getting a dollar swap line at crunch time. Emerging markets realize that, no matter how sound their policies may be, they are subject to whiplash from the policies of advanced economy central banks. The transcripts redact the other countries that requested swap lines, but it is clear from the context and from other sources that it was a large number.
Meanwhile, turning to the IMF in times of trouble is becoming less attractive for emerging economies, mainly because the institution lacks legitimacy in the eyes of policy makers. Reforms to give these countries greater representation at the IMF that befit their rising importance have stalled. These governance reforms were initially blocked by European countries that stood to lose ground.